Study on the efficacy of quarantine during outbreaks of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks at schools through the susceptive-infective-quarantine-removal model / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

To assess the efficacy of quarantine for acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC)outbreaks control in schools,by using the Compartment Model.Through combining the characteristics of both AHC and compartment model,we built a susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model suited for AHC outbreaks control in schools,and then quarantine was added into the model to develop a susceptive-infective-quarantine-removal (SIQR) model.An outbreak of AHC in Changsha in 2011 was employed as a sample to assess the effect of quarantine for the prevention and control of AHC.Basic reproduction number (λ 0) of the AHC outbreak without intervention was 6.80,thus the transmission speed of the disease became quite fast.If no intervention had been adopted,almost all the students,faculties and staff members would have been infected within 23 days,and the accumulative cases would become 738,with the total attack rate (TAR) as 99.73％.The peak of the outbreak was at Sep.11th and the number of new cases was 126 on that day.The efficacy would have been different if quarantine forces had been taken at different time and differently.The bigger and earlier the quarantine force had been adopted,the lower morbidity peak and the smaller TAR would have been appeared,with better efficacy of outbreak control.If the quarantine rate had been taken at the level of 90％ on the sixth day,the accumulative case would have been reduced to 132 and the TAR had become 17.84％ consequently.Quarantine program could be used as a main intervention approach to be employed for ACH outbreak at schools.