Distributed lag effects in the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality in Shanghai / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the impact of daily mean temperature on mortality in Shanghai.Methods With data on daily mortality,meteorological and air pollution,we used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily mean temperature on deaths (caused by non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory) adjusted for both secular,seasonal trends and other confounders.Results A J-shaped relationship was found consistently between daily mean temperature and non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory deaths in Shanghai.Cold effects were delayed by 1 day to 4 days and persisted for 14-30 days.Hot effects appeared acute and the highest at the first day,but lasted for 2 days and followed by mortality displacement.Conclusion In Shanghai,both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality with delayed effects.Cold effects seemed last longer than heat did.