Establishment of the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease of elderly male population under current health care program / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To establish and verify the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease(ICVD)among the elderly population who were under the current health care programs. Methods Statistical analysis on data from physical examination, hospitalization of the past years, from questionnaire and telephone interview was carried out in May, 2003. Data was from was randomly selected to generate both module group and verification group. Baseline data was induced to make the verification group into regression model of module group and to generate the predictive value. Distinguished ability with area under ROC curve and the predictive veracity were verified through comparing the predictive incidence rate and actual incidence rate of every deciles group by Hosmer- Lemeshow test. Predictive veracity of the prediction model at population level was verified through comparing the predictive 6-year incidence rates of ICVD with actual 6-year accumulative incidence rates of ICVD with error rate calculated. Results The samples included 2271 males over the age of 65 with 1817 people for modeling population and 454 for verified population.All of the samples were stratified into two layers to establish hierarchical Cox proportional hazard regression model, including one advanced age group(greater than or equal to 75 years old), and another elderly group(less than 75 years old). Data from the statically analysis showed that the risk factors in aged group were age, systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was high density lipoprotein; in advanced age group, the risk factors were body weight index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol level, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve (AUC)and 95%CI were 0.723 and 0.687-0.759 respectively. Discriminating power was good. All individual predictive ICVD cumulative incidence and actual incidence were analyzed using Hosmer-Lemshow test, x 2=1.43, P=0.786, showing that the predictive veracity was good.Conclusion The stratified Cox Hazards Regression model was used to establish prediction model of the aged male population under a certain health care program. The common prediction factor of the two age groups were systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, asting blood glucose level and HDL-C. Thc area under the ROWC curve of the verification group was 0.723, showing that the distinguished ability was good and the predict ability at the individual level and at the group level were also satisfactory. It was feasible to using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for predicting the population groups.