Quantitative assessment of individual risk and population screening program on gastric carcinoma / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To set up a mathematic model for determining individual risk and population risk of gastric carcinoma.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Based on principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a case-control study was quantified and a mathematic model for the screening of gastric carcinoma was set up. Using two different calculation methods of weight coefficients, the thresholds were identified as 0.20 and 0.17, respectively. This mathematic model was then used to examine 63 cases and 693 normal persons.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The sensitivities and specificities were 69% and 63%. The different calculative methods of weight coefficients did not affect the results of the identification.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The sensitivities and specificities were satisfactory indicating that it was convenient, feasible, economic and could meet the contented screening rate. It could be used to determinate the risk for gastric carcinoma both on individual and on population.</p>