Evaluation of the early prediction score system for multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly / 中华全科医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the early prediction score system for multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly (MODSE) induced by pulmonary infection. Methods A total of 316 patients with pulmonary infection aged over 60 were admitted from 2007 Jun to 2009 Jun. All patients were scored by the early prediction score system for MODSE and then classified as high-risk group and non high-risk group. χ2 test was used to analyze the difference in morbidity of MODSE between high-risk group and non high-risk group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and the area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity was calculated. Results The morbidity of MODSE in high-risk group was higher than that in non high-risk group(χ2=87.569,P＜0.01).The area under the ROC curve was 0.864(P＜0.01).The sensitivity and specificity of the early prediction score system of MODSE were 84.2% and 72. 1%, respectively. Conclusion The early prediction score system for MODSE can be used to predict MODSE induced by pulmonary infection and to screen for the high risk population.