Comparison of five scoring systems for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the roles of five scoring systems including model for endstage liver disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Mayo, MESO and MELD-Na scoring systems, in predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis. Methods The clinical data of 213 patients with chronic severe hepatitis were retrospectively studied. The five scoring systems were applied respectively to evaluate the scores in survival group and death group. The capability of these five scoring systems to predict the prognosis of severe hepatitis were compared by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under curve (AUC) and cut-off value.Measurement data were compared by group t test. The comparisons of AUC among scoring systems were done using MEDCLAC software. Results The scores of death group evaluated by MELD, CTP,Mayo, MESO or MELD-Na scoring systems (30.6 ± 9.5, 11.3 ± 1.5, 10.4 ± 1.3, 2.3 ± 0.8 and 39.0 ± 11.8, respectively) were consistently higher than those of survival group (21.1± 6.8, 10.6 ±1.6, 9.0±1.5, 1.6±0.5 and 22.6±8.2, respectively) (P＜0.01). The values of AUC of these five systems were 0.810, 0.623, 0.749, 0.829 and 0.885, respectively. The Youden's indexes of these five systems were 0.507, 0.175, 0.389, 0.528 and 0.650, respectively. Conclusions The CTP scoring systems can not predict the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis very well. The Mayo scoring systems can partially predict the prognosis. On the contrary, MELD, MESO and MELD-Na systems can successfully predict the disease prognosis, and the score of MELD-Na system shows the best correlation with the prognosis.