Models of end-stage liver disease in evaluating the prognosis of cirrhosis patients after endoscopic injection sclerotherapy / 中国医师进修杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate CTP,MELD,MELD-AS,MELD-Na,i-MELD and MESO in prognosis of cirrhosis patients who underwent endoscopic injection sclerotherapy (EIS). Methods Seventy-eight cirrhosis patients with integral clinical and follow-up data were enrolled into the study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare these six models in predicting mortality risk. The optimal threshold of them to determine the prognostic death risk was calculated by ROC curves. Results Eight patients died within half one year, 11 patients died within the first year. There was no significant difference in gender and age between the survival and death groups. The AUC of the six models higher than 0.800 were. that, 6-month MELD-AS (0.837), MESO (0.830), MELD (0.830) ; 12-month MELD (0.822),MELD-AS (0.821),MESO (0.814). Conclusions MELD-AS,MESO,MELD and so on are all accurate predictive systems for 6-month and 12-month of patients who underwent EIS. The value of them are very important in the selection of patients for EIS, and have a certain clinical significance.