Prediction value of the early prediction score system of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the prediction value of the early prediction score system of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly (MODSE). Method A total of 393 patients with pulmonary infection, who were above60 years old, were divided into non MODSE(n =224) and MODSE group(n = 169) and were scored by the early prediction score system of MODSE. Independent-samples t Test was used to analyze the difference of forecast score between MODSE and non MODSE group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn,and the area under the curve was calculated. The prediction accuracy of scores for MODSE was assessed using sen-sitivity and specificity, and the optimal forecast point for MODSE was found. Results The score of MODSE group was higber than that of non MODSE[(19.38±12.049) vs. (45.78±20.257), P <0.001]. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (P <0.001) ond 95% (0.857～0.920). As the value of forecast score was 27.5, the sensitivity of the early prediction score system of MODSE was 82.8 %, the specificity of the early prediction score system of MODSE was 80.3 %. Conclusions The early prediction score system of MODSE is valuable in predic-tion of MODSE, which may be used to forecast MODSE and find the high risk population of MODSE.