MELD and CTP scores in predicting short-term prognosis in patients with severe chronic hepatitis B / 中华临床感染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To apply the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)and the ChildTurcotte-Pugh(CTP)in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with severe chronic hepatitis B,and to evaluate their clinical value.Methods Data of 115 patients with severe chronic hepatitis B were retrospectively analyzed and all patients were divided into survival gnmp and fatal group by survival status at 3rd month of the treatment.The scores of MELD and CTP were obtained.The accuracies of MELD and CTP were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.The difference between two systems was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival curve.Results MELD and CTP scores in fatal group were significantly higher than those in the survival group(t=4.891 and 3.949,P＜0.05),and two systems were significantly correlated(γ=0.500,P=0.000).MELD and CTP scores were good for predicting the fatality rate of patients with severe chronic hepatitis B within 3 months(C-statistic0.765 and 0.834,respectively),and there was no significant difference between the two systems(Z=1.516,P＞0.05).Patients with CTP＜10.5 or MELD＜27.5 had longer survival time(Z17.88 and 25.28,P=0.000)and higher survival rates(χ2=16.88 and 31.59.P=0.000)than those with CTP＞10.5 or MELD＞27.5.Conclusion MELD and CTP scores have similar predictive valHe for short-term prognosis of patients with severe chronic hepatitis B.and clinical data should be contained to better predict the short-term prognosis.