Analysis of risk factors for upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in hepatocellular carcinoma with concurrent portal hypertension / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the risk factors for upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGH) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal hypertension (PH). Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 231 patients with HCC-PH treated in our Department from 1st January 2005 to 1st August 2009. The clinicopathologic factors were evaluated for their possible association with UGH in univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis using Logistic regression model. The overall survival (OS) was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis with calculation of the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were carried out to assess the predictive ability of the independent risk factors. Results Among 247 patients diagnosed with HCC-PH, 231 patients met the inclusion criteria and were entered into this study. UGH occurred in 28 patients (12.12 %, 28/231). Patients suffering from UGH had a higher 30-and 60-d mortality when compared with the non UGH group (53.57% vs. 4.43%, 96.43%vs. 10.34%, P＜0. 001, 0. 001). The 1-,2-and 3-year overall survival (OS) rates in the non-UGH and the UGH groups were 3. 57% (1/28), 0% (0/28), 0% (0/28) and 21.18% (43/203), 14.29% (29/203), 4.43% (9/203), respectively. There was a trend towards a non-significantly statistical difference in long-term (≥3 yr) survival (P=0. 605). UGH had a dismal prognosis with a median OS of 0. 8 months (0. 10-2. 40 months). Multivariate analysis of the risk factors showed elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (P = 0. 026) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) more than twice normal (2N)(P=0. 004) were predictive factors, in particular, AST≥2N. A cutoff value (PI≥7. 242) predicted UGH with an AUC of 0.828 (95%CI, 0.698-0.957), sensitivity of 81.0% and a specificity of 81.0%, as calculated from the ROC. Risk score stratification predicted UGH to show a statistically significant difference (P＜0. 001). Conclusions UGH, as one of the end-stage incidents of HCC-PH,had a dismal prognosis. Patients with elevated AFP levels and AST levels above 2N were associated with high risks for UGH and should be monitored carefully or offered prophylactic treatments. Risk score stratification was useful for prediction of UGH.