Risk prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a health check-up population / 中华健康管理学杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo develop a simple scoring system to identify individuals with higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus ( T2DM ).Methods Major risk factors of T2DM were fixed after literature review.Logistic regression was used to select risk factors of T2DM.Target populations were randomly assigned to 2 groups,and group A was used for the development of risk factor scoring method and group B for the confirmation of this new method.Results The threshold for T2DM risk was 65.0 for men and 65.5 for women ( sensitivity 90.6％ and 83.3％,respectively; specificity 89.4％ and 97.7％,respectively ; positive predictive value 58.8％and 80.0％,respectively;negative predictive value 98.3％and 98.2％,respectively ; area under the curve 0.955 and 0.899,respectively).There was significant difference of T2DM detection between screening and risk scoring system ( P =0.000 ).Conclusion Our T2DM risk scoring system may provide an effective tool to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing T2DM.