The role of three criteria in assessment of severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis / 中华消化杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the three criteria of Ranson,CT severity index (CTSI) and the bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) in assessment of severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.Methods A total of 503 diagnosed acute pancreatitis patients from January 2008 to April 2011 were studied retrospectively,including 356 mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) cases and 147 severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) cases.The differences of the three criteria of Rason,CTSI and BISAP in assessment of severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis were compared with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.The SAP group was divided into no organ failure group and organ failure group,and the predictive value of the three criteria in acute pancreatitis with organ failure was compared.Results There was significant differences between MAP group and SAP group with Rason,CTSI and BISAP score (x2 =236.88、126.24 and 101.27,P＜0.01).The sensitivity (97.3％) and AUC value (0.93) of Ranson criterion was highest.In no organ failure group and organ failure group of 147 SAP patients,there was significant difference between Ranson criterion and BISAP criterion (x2 =17.67 and 26.12,P＜0.01),both sensitivity were 100％,the specificity were 96％ and 85％ respectively,and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of BISAP criterion (0.8) was the highest.In illness improved group and deteriorated group,the difference of score between Ranson criterion and BISAP criterion was significant (x2 ＝ 9.53 and 10.19,P＜0.05),and the AUC value of BISAP criterion (0.74) was the highest.Conclusions All three criteria can be used to determine the severity of acute pancreatitis.In predicting the risk of SAP with organ failure and prognosis,BISAP criterion is better than Ranson criterion.BISAP criterion is simple and easy to practice,which provides an important rule for evaluating the clinical condition of acute pancreatitis.