Early prognosis judgment in adult recipients after first liver transplantation / 中华消化外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To judge the prognosis of adult recipients after first liver transplantation by stepwise discriminant analysis,and screen out the main influencing factors.Methods The clinical data of 221 patients who received liver transplantation at the Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University were retrospectively analyzed.A total of 218 patients who met the criteria were divided into the training samples (188 patients admitted from August 2004 to June 2010) and checking samples (30 patients admitted from July 2010 to February 2011),and then all patients were re-divided into dead group (survival time ≤ 90 days,34 patients) and surviving group (survival time ＞ 90 days,184 patients).Factors which had significant difference after the univariate analysis was further analyzed by the stepwise discriminant analysis method.All data were analyzed by the t test,rank sum test,chi-square test or Fisher exact probability test.Results The ages of the recipients in the dead group and the living group were (54 ± 11)years and (51 ± 11)years,respectively,with no significant difference between the 2 groups (t =-1.681,P ＞ 0.05).The preoperative levels of hemoglobin in the dead group and the living group were 106.7 g/L and 119.2 g/L,respectively,with a significant difference between the 2 groups (t =2.809,P ＜ 0.05).There were significant differences in the levels of serum creatinine,urea nitrogen,albumin,total bilirubin,indirect bilirubin,Na+,prothrombin time,activated partial thromboplastin time,international normalized ratio,fibrinogen,prothrombin activity,platelet,nutrition risk index,model for end-stage liver disease score,number of patients with preoperative hepatic encephalopathy (HE),preoperative hepatorenal syndrome (HRS),preoperative digestive tract bleeding,preoperative infection,preoperative diabetes,Child-Turcotte-Pugh score,cardiac function classification and anesthesia risk rating operation time,anhepatic time,volume of intraoperative blood transfusion,volume of peritoneal effusion ; intraoperative urine output,between the 2 groups (Z =-2.277,-2.595,-3.290,-3.486,-2.562,-2.577,-3.670,-3.882,-3.625,-3.557,-3.837,-1.974,-3.693,-3.815,x2 =19.632,9.756,28.143,Z =-4.175,-3.905,-4.865,-3.564,-5.822,P ＜ 0.05).Preoperative HE,preoperative HRS,duration of operation,intraoperative blood transfusion and intraoperative volume of urine were the independent influencing factors of early prognosis after liver transplantation.The standardized partial regression coefficients were 0.146,0.188,0.257,0.181,-0.340,89.9％ (169/188) of the training samples and 90.0％ (27/30) of the checking samples were correctly classified.Conclusion Based on factors including HRS,HE,intraoperative blood transfusion,intraoperative volume of urine and duration of operation,the early prognosis can be judged in adult recipients after first liver transplantation.