A multifactorial analysis on long-term survival of kidney transplantation recipients : a report of 989 cases in one centre / 中华器官移植杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting long-term survival of recipients and renal allografts.Methods From January 1979 to December 2001,the clinical data of 1380 renal allograft recipients were retrospectively analyzed.The clinical and complication data of kidney transplantation were reviewed.Thirteen relative factors were analyzed by SAS statistical software.A Kaplan-Meier rank analysis was used to estimate the 10-year allograft survival rate.Proportional hazards regression analysis (with Cox model) was used to assess and rank the relative risk of potential variable.Results (1) As of Dec.31,2001,utility visiting rate was 93.62％,989 recipients survived over 10 years.The complications were as followsacute rejection (191 cases),infection (112 cases),liver damage (106 cases).The postoperational 10-year survival rate of recipients and renal allografts was 71.67％ and 62.25％ respectively.(2) CAN,acute rejection,DGF,infection,diabetic mellitus,PRA ＞10％ and HLA mismatch＞3 were the independent risk factors resulting in the reduced survival rate of the renal allografts (P＜0.05).Immunosuppressive regimen with MMF could significantly increase long-term survival rate (P＜ 0.01); (3) The cardiocerebral vascular diseases,liver insufficiency,infection,tumor and diabetic mellitus were independent risk factors for long-term survival (P＜0.01).Conclusion The ideal HLA match is the key step in increasing survival rate; Low dosage of calcineurin inhibitor with MMF and Pred is the ideal regimen of immunosuppressive therapy for long-term survival; active prevention and treatment of cardiocerebral vascular diseases/CAN,infection,diabetic mellitus,and tumor are the main points focused during the follow-up period.