Risk score model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology
;
: 170-178, 2017.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-43201
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/AIMS:
This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).METHODS:
We investigated 2,061 Korean treatment-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir as an initial therapy. A risk score model for HCC development was developed based on multivariable Cox regression model in a single center (n=990) and was validated using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in three other centers (n=1,071). The difference of HCC development among risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) categorized by risk score was also investigated.RESULTS:
The cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 5 years were 11.2% and 8.9% in the testing and validation cohorts, respectively. HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir (HCC-RESCUE) is formulated as (age+15×gender [female=0 / male=1]+23×cirrhosis [absence=0 / presence=1]). The AUROCs at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 0.82, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively, in the validation cohort. A significant difference of HCC development in each risk group was determined by the 5-year HCC risk score in the validation cohort (low risk group, 2.1%; intermediate risk group, 9.3%; high risk group, 41.2%, p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:
The study presents a new risk score model with a good ability to predict HCC development and determine high risk patients for HCC development consisting of readily available clinical factors in treatment-naïve CHB patients receiving entecavir.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Antiviral Agents
/
Incidence
/
ROC Curve
/
Cohort Studies
/
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/
Risk Assessment
/
Hepatitis B, Chronic
/
Hepatitis, Chronic
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Incidence study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology
Year:
2017
Type:
Article
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