Analysis of prognostic factors for patients with hepatitis B viurs-related liver failure and construction of a prognostic assessment model / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors which may affect prognosis of patients with hepatits B virus (HBV)-related liver failure,and to construct a model for prognostic evaluation and further assess its predictive ability.Methods In this retrospective cohort study,569 hospitalized patients who were diagnosed with HBV-related liver failure from January 2007 to December 2010 were enrolled.All the patients were followed up and survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method.Univariate and multivariate COX proportional hazards regression analyses were applied to variables such as age,sex,complications,biochemical markers,coagulation markers,and HBV DNA levels to construct a model for prognostic evaluation,and 79 independent cases of HBV-related liver failure were used to confirm the model's predictive ability.Accuracy of the constructed model and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.Results The median survival time for all the patients was 59 days.The survival rates at 1,3,6 months were 58.9％,46.2％ and 45.5％,respectively;and survival rates at 1 and 3 years were 44.9％ and 44.5％,respectively.Hepatic encephalopathy,pulmonary infection,upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB),albumin (Alb),aspartate aminotransferase (AST),creatinine (Cr),international normalized ratio (INR) were determined to be independent risk factors (all P＜0.01) which may affect survival of patients with HBV related liver failure.Accordingly,the prognostic index (PI) of the constructed model for prognostic evaluation 4.98 × assignment of hepatic encephalopathy + 4.57 × assignment of pulmonary infection + 4.41 ×assignment of UGIB-9.69 ×lm[Alb (g/L)]+2.46 ×ln[AST (U/L)]+5.18×ln[Cr (mmol/L)]+3.35×ln (INR) 15.36.The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.838 for the constructed model assessing 90-d survival of the patients,and was 0.751 for model for end-stage liver disease,with no significant difference between the two models (Z=1.085,P =0.278).Conclusions Prognosis of patients with HBV-related liver failure can be accurately predicted by the constructed prognostic assessment model,which is consisted of hepatic encephalopathy,pulmonary infection,UGIB,Alb,AST,Cr,and INR as independent risk factors,and is able to predict the 90 d survival.