Value of ISS for predicting mortality in multiple trauma patients / 中华创伤杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the value of ISS in predicting mortality after multiple trauma.Methods A total of 550 patients with multiple trauma treated from March 2007 to May 2011 were divided into survivor group (n =473) and death group (n =77) according to the outcome.ISS and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ]) were used to predict patients' risk of death.Receiver operation characteristic curve (ROC) was developped to compare the area under the curve (AUC),optimal cut-off point,and prediction index for the two scoring systems.Results ISS and APACHE Ⅱ score were higher in death group than in survivor group (P ＜ 0.05).ISS showed the diagnostic cut-off point of ≥20,with a sensitivity of 76.7％,specificity of 83.7％,concordance rate of 82.7％,and AUC of 0.835.With regard to APACHE Ⅱ,the diagnostic cut-off point was ≥20,with a sensitivity of 80.5％,specificity of 89.2％,concordance rate of 88.0％,and AUC of 0.922.ISS and APACHE Ⅱ were equivalent in predicting mortality (P ＞ 0.05).Conclusion ISS presents a moderate value for predicting the mortality of multiple trauma patients and it is more rational to set ISS≥20 points as the criteria for severe multiple trauma.