Predictive value of three scoring models for end-stage liver disease for short term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the predictive value of the baseline ,week 1 and week 2 model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) scores ,MELD‐Na scores and MELDNa scores for 3‐month mortality in hepatitis B virus (HBV) related acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients .Methods Fifty‐three eligible HBV‐related ACLF patients who received initial treatment in People′s Hospital of Deyang City , Sichuan Province from January 2014 to January 2015 were enrolled in this retrospective clinical follow‐up study .Patients were divided into death group and survival group according to the prognosis after 3 months of treatment .Biochemical data and complications were collected .t test was used to compare the means between two groups and χ2 test was used to compare categorical data .Accuracy of scoring models in predicting mortality within 3 months was performed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) .Results Of the fifty‐three patients ,twenty‐one HBV‐related ACLF patients died in 3‐month , while thirty‐two patients survived .The AUC of MELD scores ,MELD‐Na scores and MELDNa scores at the baseline in predicting 3‐month mortality were 0 .548 (95% CI0 .406 -0 .685 , P= 0 .555) ,0 .502 (95% CI0 .362-0 .643 ,P=0 .978) and 0 .523 (95% CI0 .381-0 .662 ,P=0 .778) ,respectively .The AUC increased gradually at the first and the second week .At the second week ,the AUC of MELD scores ,MELD‐Na scores and MELDNa scores were 0 .881 (95% CI0 .762 -0 .953 ,P<0 .01) ,0 .878 (95% CI0 .759-0 .951 ,P<0 .01) and 0 .897 (95% CI0 .783 -0 .963 ,P<0 .01) ,respectively .The AUC of the second week was higher than those of the baseline and the first week (both P<0 .05) .The sensitivity ,specificity ,positive predictive value (PPV) ,and accuracy at the second week were best when the cut off was 26 for MELD ,29 for MELD‐Na and 29 for MELDNa , and were higher than the corresponding values of the baseline and the first week .Conclusions The predictive values of MELD scores ,MELD‐Na scores and MELDNa scores at the second week are superior to the baseline and the first week for 3‐month mortality in HBV‐related ACLF patients ,while the predictive values at the baseline could be poor .