Optimal allocation of hospital resources in China based on reasonable average das of stay:research and prediction / 中华医院管理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To measure and predict the hospital resources to be saved by reducing one day of stay in average in China,predict its future impacts,and to probe into the importance of less average days of stay for hospital resource deployment.Methods A mathematical model was used for quantitative analysis of the actual impacts of one less day of stay in China′s hospitals for the hospital resources,and the gray forecasting model was used to predict the hospital resources so saved by achieving so during 2013 to 2025.Results One hospital day less could save 9.41% of a hospital′s total bed resources.According to the growing trend of hospital beds in China and the deployment relationship,it is predicted that more hospital resources will be saved by one hospital day less in average from 2013 to 2025.Conclusions Shorter average days of stay and optimal deployment of hospital resources,should be based on quality of care.Less ineffective waiting time to shorten average days of stay can be breakthrough to improve the comprehensive efficiency of health resources.