Simplified MELD Score Accurately Classifies HBV-related Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Decompensation into Different Short-term Prognostic Groups / 胃肠病学

ABSTRACT

Background:For patients with liver cirrhosis and acute decompensation(AD),it is of great clinical importance to predict short-term mortality at admission. It has been reported that CLIF-C OF,MELD and MELD-Na score can accurately predict the short-term mortality,but all these scoring systems are complicated and have limits in their application. Aims:To define a simple and objective scoring system -- simplified MELD score for short-term mortality prediction in HBV-related cirrhotic patients with AD. Methods:A total of 890 consecutive HBV-related cirrhotic patients with AD hospitalized during Jan. 2005 to Dec. 2010 at Shanghai Ren Ji Hospital were enrolled retrospectively. Clinical data and patients’outcome were collected,and simplified MELD score was calculated by using total bilirubin,international normalized ratio and creatinine values at admission. Patients were classified into different prognostic groups according to their 28-day mortalities and simplified MELD score. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze the 1-year accumulate survival rate,and ROC curve was used to evaluate the performance of different scoring systems in predicting 28-day mortality. Results:Simplified MELD score at admission could classify HBV-related cirrhotic patients with AD into low,moderate and high 28-day mortality groups and different long-term prognostic groups;the score of low,moderate and high 28-day mortality group was 0-2,3 and 4-6,respectively,and the corresponding mortality was 5. 5% ,19. 8% and 48. 6% ,respectively. Simplified MELD score had the same good performance as compared with the CLIF-C OF,MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 28-day mortality,the area under ROC curve was 0. 828,0. 831,0. 828 and 0. 830,respectively. Conclusions:Simplified MELD score can accurately classify HBV-related cirrhotic patients with AD into low,moderate and high 28-day mortality groups at admission. It is convenient for using in clinical practice.