The predicting value of serum sST2 on condition and prognosis in elderly patients with acute heart failure / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the predicting value of serum sST2 on risk stratification and prognosis in elderly patients with acute heart failure (AHF).Methods Total of 75 AHF patients aged 60 to 93 were selected in our study who were in Beijing Hospital during 2013.1-2014.8,including 40 cases of male and 35 cases of female.Moreover,38 healthy people aged 70 to 80 were chosen as control group,which contains 18 cases of male and 20 cases of female.Follow-up was performed 1 year after acute attack.We defined the end of observation as recurrence of heart failure or any causes of death.The data was analyzed by SPSS19.0.Results Compared with control group,sST2 level (pg/mL) was significantly elevated in AHF group [(596.9 ±181.2) vs.(1 698.9 ±797.0),P ＜0.001].No significant difference was found between male and female (1 713.1 ± 1 322.2 vs.1 727.5 ±867.1,P =0.956).sST2 level was significantly different between patients with different clinical heart function grade [1 439.5 ±694.5 (mild-Ⅰ and Ⅱ grade) vs.2 057.8 ± 1428.6 (severeⅢ and Ⅳ grade),P =0.026].Among the 75 AHF patients,sST2 level was higher in patients with endpoint events than those without endpoint events [(2 234.4 ± 1 308.5) vs.(1 162.3 ±452.6),P=0.000].According to the independent risk factors of unconditioned logistic bivariate regression model analysis,the levels of sST2,NT-proBNP and the clinical heart function Grade had independent predicting value of AHF (OR value were 1.003,1.001 and 7.46 respectively).We found that the cutoff value of sST2 (1 760 pg/mL) may be an valuable evaluation marker of prognosis,the sensitivity and specificity was 64％ and 92％,and the positive and negtive predictive rate were 89％ and 70％.The accuracy rate was 77％.Combined with NT-proBNP to predict the prognosis of AHF,the result would be more exciting.The area under the ROC curve is 0.889.The endpoint event rate of the patients whose level of sST2 was below 1400pg/mL and NT-proBNP level below 4000pg/mL was 7％,while the data in patients whose level of sST2 is above 1400 pg/mL and NT-proBNP above 4000pg/mL was 95％.Conclusions Early at admission of AHF in elderly patients,sST2 began to elevate markedly related with the extent of heart failure.The result shows that the level of sST2 may be used to evaluate patient.The elevation of sST2 has independent predictive value to the prognosis of AHF.It will be better to predict the prognosis combining ST2 with other biomarkers such as NT-proBNP.