The predictive value of cleveland clinical score for acute renal injury after cardiac valve surgery in Chinese adult patients / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To validate the value of Cleveland Clinical Score in predicting acute renal injury requiring renal replacement therapy(RRT-AKI) after cardiac valve surgery in Chinese adult patients.Methods An analysis was conducted for all the adult patients who underwent cardiac valve surgery from January 2010 to December 2014 in Changhai Hospital,Shanghai.A total of 3 230 adult patients were included.Based on Cleveland Clinical Score,the patients were divided into 3 risk stages0 to 2 point,3 to 5 point,and 6 to 8 point.The incidence of RRT-AKI were compared between different stages.And the predictive value of the Cleveland Clinical Score model was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC-ROC) and the model calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.The patients were also divided into two groupsNon-RRT group and RRT-AKI group.The mortality were compared between these two groups.Results The incidence of RRT-AKI was 1.67％ vs the predicted ratio of RRT-AKI 1.70％ (x2 =0.018,P =0.892).Among the stage 1,2,and 3,the actual incidence of RRT-AKI,was 1.23％,2.66％,and 16.7％ vs the predicted incidence 0.40％,1.80％,and 9.50％,respectively.The AUC-ROC for Cleveland Clinical Score predicting RRT-AKI was 0.64 [95 ％ CI(0.57,0.71),P ＜0.01].Compared with Non-RRT group,the RRT-AKI group got a higher mortality(87.00％ vs 1.50％,x2 =1 330,P ＜0.01).Conclusion The Cleveland Clinical score had no real predictive value for RRT-AKI in Chinese adult patients after cardiac valve surgery.The incidence of RRT-AKI of the whole population and the stage 3 patients could be predicted by the model.And the patients with a high Cleveland score got a higher mortality than that of patients with a low Cleveland score.