Construction of risk model for healthcare-associated infection with multi-drug-resistant organisms in general intensive care unit / 中国感染控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To construct the risk model for healthcare-associated infection (HAI)with multidrug-re-sistant organisms(MDROs)in intensive care unit (ICU).Methods 836 patients who were admitted to ICU for more than 48 hours between October 2012 and September 2015 were analyzed retrospectively,logistic regression model of HAI was constructed,the model was conducted goodness of fit tests and the area under ROC curve analysis. Results Among 836 patients,incidence of HAI with MDROs was 14.23%(n=119).15 variables that were statis-tically significant in univariate analysis were included in logistic multivariate analysis,the results showed that the following variables entered into logistic regression equationlength of ICU stay (OR,2.493 [95%CI ,1 .816 -3.494]),underlying diseases (OR,1 .536 [95%CI ,1 .243 - 1 .898 ]),hypoproteinemia (OR,87.211 [95%CI , 36.165-210.304]),ventilator days (OR,1 .723 [95%CI ,1 .399-2.121 ]),fever(OR,20.639 [95%CI ,3.462 -123.043]),and primary pulmonary infection (OR,0.295 [95%CI ,0.133 -0.664]).Evaluation of model effectsensitivity 95%,specificity 87.9%,the area under ROC curve 0.973.Conclusion Logistic regression model has a high goodness of fit in predicting HAI among ICU patients.