Prognostic value of National Early Warning Scores combined with arterial lactate level in critical elderly ill patients / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the prognostic value of National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) combined with arterial lactate level in elderly patients with critical illness in emergency department.Methods A total of 413 elderly patients with critical illness randomly (random number) selected from resuscitation room in emergency department from September 2013 to July 2015 were enrolled in this study.NEWS system was employed to determine the patients' condition.Arterial lactate level was detected.The patients were followed for the 30-day death by telephone calls and patients were divided into survival group and death group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to evaluate the prognostic values of NEWS score,arterial lactate level,and NEWS score combined with arterial lactate level in patients without survival.Results There were significant differences in NEWS score and arterial lactate level between the death group and the survival group.The results of multiple factor regression showed that NEWS score,arterial lactate level,and NEWS score combined with arterial lactate level were all independent predictors of 30-day death (P ＜ 0.05,OR ＞ 1).The AUCs of the three evaluation modalities were 0.721,0.746 and 0.762,respectively.There was a significant difference in the area under the ROC curve between NEWS score and NEWS score combined with arterial lactate level.The optimal cut-off point of NEWS score was 7,and arterial lactate level was 2.7 mmol/L.Conclusions NEWS score,arterial lactate level,and NEWS score combined with arterial lactate level were independent predictors of 30-day death in elderly patients with critical illness in emergency department.They all had some predictive value,and NEWS score combined with arterial lactate level had higher capability to predict 30-day death in elderly patients with critical illness in emergency department than NEWS score alone.