Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Development of Prognostic Model for Resectable Acral Melanoma Patients / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

ABSTRACT

[Objective]To analyze the prognostic factors of resectable acral melanoma patients ,then develop a novel prognostic model and examined its prognostic value.[Methods]The study retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological characteristics and inflam?matory markers of 232 acral melanoma patients who underwent radical surgical resection between 2000 and 2011 at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regression analyses and a prognostic model based on these variables was constructed to predict survival.[Results]Cox regression analysis revealed that age,lactic dehydrogenase(LDH),stage,globulin(GLB)and C-reactive protein (CRP)were independently related to survival. After computing these scores ,patients were classified into three risk groups. The new prognostic model identified three categories of patients with different prognoses(P<0.001)and significantly stratify patient prognosis in different tumor stages. The 5-year survival rate was 42.9%,25.7%,and 3.7%in groups 1,2,and 3,respectively. The AUC of new prognostic model is 0.664(95%CI0.599-0.724).[Conclusion]Age,LDH,stage,GLB and CRP were independently related to survival in our study population,and the prognostic model is useful to stratify patients into different risk groups and it is a useful complement to AJCC staging for Asian patients with acral melanoma.