Construction of ARIMA time series model for healthcare-associated infection in hospitalized children / 中国感染控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the applicability of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in predicting healthcare-associated infection(HAI) in children.Methods The ARIMA model was constructed according to the incidence of HAI in a hospital from January 2011 to December 2014.With the use of information criterion,optimal model was determined;HAI data in 2015 was as test samples,the feasibility of the model was evaluated.Results ARIMA (0,1,1) was the optimal prediction model for HAI rate,the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) of the ARIMA (0,1,1) were 66.61 and 70.76,respectively.The Ljung-Box statistics value Q =14.14 was not significantly different (P =0.658),suggesting a white noise sequence of residuals with a good model fitting.The mean absolute percent error(MAPE) between actual and fitting value of HAI was 22.4,the actual values were within the 95％ confidence interval.Conclusion ARIMA model fits the time series data,and can achieve satisfactory effect on predicting the incidence of HAI in hospitalized children.