A noninvasive model for predicting existence of esophageal varices in cirrhosis / 中国实用内科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To develop a noninvasive diagnostic model comprising of transabdominal ultrasonography and serum markers for assessing esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis.Methods Totally 230 liver cirrhosis patients were randomly allocated to either an estimation group(161 cases)or a validation group(69 cases).Gastroscope was performed and whether esophageal varices existed or not was assessed in every patient.Seventeen common ultrasonographic and serum markers were analyzed initially in the estimation group to derive a predictive model.The model created was then assessed with ROC analysis.It was also applied to the validation group to test its accuracy.Results Among seventeen variables associated with esophageal varices selected by univariate analysis,splenic thickness,diameter of portal vein,prothrombin time were indentified by multivariate Logistic regression analysis as independent risk factors of varices.A varices index constructed from the above three markers was established.In ROC analysis,the AUC was 0.853(0.764,0.942)for predicting existence of varices using the optimal cutoff score 6.3.The diagnostic sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value and accuracy were 81.2%,85.7%,92.35%,68.21%,82.77% respectively.For the validation group,the AUC and diagnostic accuracy were 0.889(0.814,0.965)and 82.86% respectively.Conclusion A noninvasive model consisting of splenic thickness,diameter of portal vein and prothrombin time is helpful in predicting existence of esophageal varices in cirrhosis.