Study on spatio-temporal pattern of mountainous Oncomelania hupensis snails at village scale in Eryuan County,Yunnan Province / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To develop a spatio-temporal model of mountainous Oncomelania hupensis snails based on the Bayes-ian model,and to analyze and identify the spatio-temporal pattern at a village scale. Methods The data including the intensity and spatial distribution of live and infected snails from 2000 to 2006 and the village boundary were collected. The independent and interactive spatio-temporal models were established,and then the best fitness model was selected to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of live and infected snails. Results The interactive model of live snails and the independent model of infected snails were relative fitness models,and the models showed 95%CI(confidence interval)of the spatial and temporal coefficient included ze-ro,and indicated that the spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected snails was not significant at a village scale. Conclu-sion There is no significant spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected mountainous snails at a village scale,and the fur-thermore study should be carried out at a small scale.