The Application of the Prediction of the Reported Weekly Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Chaoyang District Using the Time Series Model / 中国卫生统计
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
;
(6): 583-585,591, 2009.
Article
in Chinese
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-598386
ABSTRACT
Objective The study estabfished a model to pre-dict the weekly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Chaoyang District,and evaluated its predictive effects. Methods To eliminate the factors of sea-son-changing by means of Time Series. Auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), based on model identification, estimation andverifica-tion of parameter, and analysis of the fitting of model, was established. Fi-nally,the predictive model was established by the multiple of ARLMA and seasonal factors. Results The error of the model for the prediction was -0.06 on average. The relative error was 2.32% on average. Conclusion Time series could not only accurately predict useing the data which was collected every week,but shorten the cycle of prediction.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Type of study:
Incidence study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
Chinese
Journal:
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
Year:
2009
Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS