Stratifying risk and establishing predictive risk-scoring model for lymph-node metastasis in early gastric cancer / 中华普通外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the independent risk factors of lymph-node metastasis (LNM) in patients with early gastric cancer (EGC),and establish a risk-prediction model based on LNM.Method 962 early gastric cancer patients undergoing curative radical gastrectomy in the First Hospital of Anhui Medical University from July 2011 to April 2016 were enrolled in this study.The relationships between different clinicopathologic characteristics and LNM were analyzed by Chi-square test or Fisher exact probability,and the independent risk factors were determined using Logistic regression analysis.Moreover,LNM risk was stratified and a risk-predicting model was established on the basis of the identified independent risk factors for LNM.Further,the risk-predicting model was validated using 962 EGC cases.The discriminatory accuracy of risk-predicting model was measured by area under ROC curve (ROC-AUC).Results Mucosal differentiated cancer ≤2 cm,irrespective of the existence of an ulcer,had low LNM rates (LNMR ＜ 3.0％).Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that female EGC patients with submucosal,undifferentiated,vessel invasion and tumor size ＞ 2 cm were independent risk factors of LNM for EGC patients,and relative risks were 1.893,3.173,1.956,1.922 and 9.027 respectively (P ＜ 0.05).ROCAUC of risk-predicting model was 0.768 (P ＜ 0.01),which showed high diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity.Conclusion Female EGC patients with submucosal undifferentiated carcinomas measuring ＞ 2 cm with vessel invasion have higher risk of LNM.