Establishment of ischemic stroke recurrence model and its prospective application / 中华老年心脑血管病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To establish Cox proportional hazards regression model and individual prognosis index (PI) equation for the 3-year recurrence of ischemic stroke and to verify their external reality according to their propective application.Methods A total of 1058 first-ever ischemic stroke patients admitted to our hospital were followed up from 2013-01-01 to 2013-12-31,during which the recurrence of ischemic stroke was recorded.Cox proportional hazards regression model and PI equation for the 3-year recurrence of ischemic stroke were established.Six hundred and sixteen first-ever ischemic stroke patients admitted to our hospital were followed up from 2016-01-01 to 2016-12-31.The external reality of Cox proportional hazards regression model for the 3-year recurrence of ischemic stroke was verified according to the established PI equation.Results Of the patients who were followed up in 2013,ischemic stroke reoccurred in 184.Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that age,heart disease,hypertension,diabetes mellitus and TC were the independent risk factors for the recurrence of ischemic stroke.Of the patients who were followed up in 2016,ischemic stroke reoccurred in 114.The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of PI equation in predicting the recurrence of ischemic stroke were 71.9％,76.9％ and 80.0％ respectively.Conclusion Establishment of PI equation for the 3-year recurrence of ischemic stroke can predict the recurrence of ischemic stroke.