Modeling and simulation of transmission dynamics of syphilis in Bayinguoleng Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective By analyzing the data of new syphilis cases from 2008 to 2014 in Bayinguoleng Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture (Bazhou for short) of Xinjiang to further provide reference basis for setting up control strategies.Methods Using the new syphilis data reported in Bazhou of Xinjiang,we constructed a dynamic model of transmission dynamics of syphilis,and the model was simulated and quantitatively analyzed.Results The syphilis dynamical model was introduced,the methods of setting the relevant parameters were given.It was found that the established model fitted well (MA PE =1.59％,RMSPE =0.68％),and the basic reproduction number of outbreak epidemic was estimated to be R0 =1.06 (95％ CI1.01-1.15),it was predicted that the cumulative incidence of syphilis in Bazhou was 18 145 cases by 2024.In 2023,the cumulative number of cases was 16 465,and the number of new cases reached 1 680 in 2024.The infection rate,the number of core group partners and the treatment rate were main factors influencing the prevalence of syphilis after comparison of the sensitivity of the model parameters.Conclusion There is still an upward trend in the prevalence of syphilis infection in Bazhou of Xinjiang,and relevant departments should strengthen the prevention and control measures in high-risk groups,promote the use of condoms and other comprehensive intervention measures to control the prevalence of syphilis.