Analysis on cause of death in residents of Minhang District of Shanghai from 1996 to 2015 / 复旦学报（医学版）

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze changes and trends of the mortality and causes of death in the residents of Minhang District of Shanghai from 1996 to 2015.Methods Crude death rates (CDR) and age-standardized death rates (ADR) were calculated,respectively.Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends in the leading causes of death.Permutation test was used to find whether the joinpoints were statistically significant based on P value＜0.05.Results The elderly population in Minhang District accounted for 18.07％ of the total population in 2015,which increased by 73.89％ than it in 1996.The CDRs of all causes for resent 20 years gradually increased with the annual percentage change (APC) of 0.62％ (P＜0.05),but decreased significantly after standardization (APC =-3.73％,P＜0.05).In 2015,the top five causes of death were circulatory disease;neoplasms;respiratory disease;endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases;injury and poisoning in the total population,males and females registered in Minhang District.ADRs of circulatory disease,neoplasms,respiratory disease and injury and poisoning decreased to-3.16％,-1.86％,-8.03％ and -4.96 ％,respectively (P＜0.05).ADRs of endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases significantly increased during 1996 to 2001 (APC=16.58％,P＜0.05) and thereafter remained stable.Conclusions The issue of population aging in Minhang District is getting worse,and chronic non-communicable diseases and injury and poisoning can be identified as major public health concerns at present.