Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis and its social influence factors in immigration city / 中国人兽共患病学报

ABSTRACT

We investigated the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB),and analyzed its social influence factors in immigration city.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on PTB cases data extracted from the National Disease Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between 2013 and 2015.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied to community based and town-based incidence data by SaTScan 9.1.1.The results were visualized by ArcMap10.2.A total of 12 109 PTB cases were reported in Ningbo with a decreasing trend in incidence rate and an increasing trend in proportion of floating population from 2013 to 2015.The male to female ratio was 2.07 ∶ 1 (8 162/3 947).All age groups were affected by PTB,but the incidence in 15-34 years age group and 65+ years age group were higher.Patients aged between 15 and 54 years accounted for 73.95 ％ of all cases.Most cases were farmers,housekeepers or unemployed,migrants and workers.There were six temporal-spatial clusters,of which the most likely clusters were in downtown and its surrounding areas,and the second likely clusters were in industrial parks.Compared with non cluster areas,proportion of floating population (t =2.88,P=0.01) especially immigrants from other provinces (t=7.46,P =0.00),and population density (t=3.37,P=0.00) in cluster areas were higher,while per capita green area was lower (t =-2.39,P 0.03).The downtown and its surrounding areas,industrial parks could be the future PTB combating regions.High population density and immigrants are associated with PTB clustering.