Application of time series analysis and model construction in the prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease / 实用医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the value of time series analysis and model construction in predicting hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD). Methods By analyzing the data of HFMD in a hospital in Zhengzhou from January 2009 to October 2016,a seasonal autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model was established according to the time series analysis. At the same time ,the model was evaluated to determine the fitting precision between the measured values and fitted values. Results After the parameter exploration ,the best fitting model was finally determined as ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12,with a stationary R2 of 0.734,a statistic value of Ljung-Box Q(18)of 10.497,P Value of 0.725. The two curves of the fitted values and the measured values were close,suggesting that the model has good fitting ability. Conclusion Time series analysis and the seasonal ARMA model have good predictive ability in predicting HFMD.