Value of the preoperative Child-Pugh score and albumin-bilirubin score predicting posthepatectomy liver failure and prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma / 中华消化外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the value of the preoperative Child-Pugh score and albuminbilirubin (ALBI) score predicting posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) and prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinona (HCC).Methods The retrospective cohort study was conducted.The clinical data of 226 HCC patients who were admitted into the People's Hospital of Peking University between January 2010 and October 2014 were collected.After preoperative related examinations,feasibility and extent of liver resection were discussed according to patients' conditions by muhidisciplinary team,and then surgery was performed.Observation indicators(1) surgical situations;(2) factors analysis affecting PHLF of HCC patients;(3) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of Child-Pugh and ALBI scores predicting PHLF;(4) follow-up and survival situations;(5) prognosis analysis of HCC patients after hepatectomy.Follow-up using outpatient examination and telephone interview was performed to detect postoperative survival up to August 2016.Measurement data with normal distribution were represented as-±s.Measurement data with skewed distribution were described as M (P25,P75).The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method,and the Log-rank test was used for survival analysis.The influencing factors of PHLF were analyzed using the logistic regression model.The prognostic factors were analyzed by the COX regression model.ROC analysis was used for predictive value of Child-Pugh and ALBI scores.Results (1) Surgical situations226 patients underwent successful surgery,including 171 receiving localized liver resection (＜ 3 Couinaud hepatic segments resection) and 55 receiving extensive liver resection (≥ 3 Couinaud hepatic segments resection).Volume of intraoperative blood loss of 226 patients was 1-22 550 mL,with a median of 800 mL.Of 226 patients,89,9,4,4,3 and 1 were complicated with liver failure,pulmonary infection,bile leakage,gastrointestinal henorrhage,incision infection and infectious shock,respectively,they were cured and discharged from hospital by life-sustaining treatment and symptomatic treatment.Duration of hospital stay was 2-49 days,with a median of 12 days.(2) Factors analysis affecting PHLF of HCC patientsresults of univariate analysis showed that gender,total bilirubin (TBil),albumin (Alb),prothrombin time (PT),international normalized ratio (INR),platelet (PLT),peritoneal effusion,volume of intraoperative blood loss,Child-Pugh score and ALBI score were related factors affecting PHLF of HCC patients [Odds ratio (OR) =O.490,1.077,0.763,1.613,26.342,0.990,2.458,5.052,2.875,34.570,95％ confidence interval (CI)0.248-0.971,1.030-1.127,0.699-0.833,1.248-2.087,2.722-254.936,0.985-0.995,1.386-4.361,2.467-10.347,1.807-4.576,11.674-102.376,P＜0.05].Child-Pugh score and ALBI score in the multivariate analysis were respectively analyzed using the logistic regression model for avoiding multicollinearity.Excluding TBil,Alb,PT and peritoneal effusion,logistic regression model of Child-Pugh score showed that PLT,volume of intraoperative blood loss and Child-Pugh score were independent factors affecting PHLF of HCC patients (OR=0.991,4.462,2.412,95％CI0.986-0.996,2.090-9.527,1.479-3.934,P＜0.05).Excluding TBil and Alb,Logistic regression model of ALBI score showed that PLT,volume of intraoperative blood loss and ALBI score were independent factors affecting PHLF of HCC patients (OR=O.990,4.867,42.947,95％CIO.984-0.995,2.088-11.346,12.409-148.637,P＜ 0.05).(3) ROC analysis of Child-Pugh and ALBI scores predicting PHLFarea under the ROC was respectively 0.652 (95％CI0.577-0.727) in the Child-Pugh score and 0.801 (95％CI0.741-0.861) in the ALBI score,with a statistically significant difference (Z=3.590,P＜0.05).The best critical value,sensitivity and specificity of PHLF that were predicted by ALBI score were-2.58,68.5％ and 86.9％,respectively.Further analysis showed that area under the ROC was respectively 0.642 (95％CI0.554-0.731) in Child-Pugh score and 0.813 (95％CI0.744-0.882) in ALBI score,excluding factors of extensive liver resection affecting PHLF,with a statistically significant difference (Z=3.407,P＜0.05).(4)Follow-up and survival situationsof 226 patients,217 were followed up for 1.3-79.5 months,with a median time of 29.5 months.During the follow-up,134 patients had survival and 92 died.(5) Prognosis analysis of HCC patients after hepatectomyresults of univariate analysis showed that Alb,PLT,alpha-fetoprotein (AFP),peritoneal effusion,tumor diameter,extent of resection,combined portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT),combined vascular tumor thrombus and Child-Pugh score were related factors affecting prognosis of HCC patients [Hazard Ratio (HR)=0.954,1.003,2.958,1.698,1.155,1.785,2.326,3.001,1.324,95％CI0.911-0.999,1.000-1.005,1.955-4.476,1.115-2.585,1.103-1.209,1.138-2.802,1.310-4.130,1.983-4.546,1.037-1.690,P ＜ 0.05].Excluding Alb and peritoneal effusion for avoiding multicollinearity,results of multivariate analysis showed that AFP,tumor diameter,combined vascular tumor thrombus and Child-Pugh score were independent factors affecting prognosis of HCC patients (HR =2.237,1.080,2.122,1.309,95％ CI1.439-3.476,1.028-1.134,1.362-3.305,1.010-1.697,P＜0.05).Further analysis of Kaplan-Meier curve showed that median survival time in patients with grade A and B of Child-Pugh score were respectively 30.6 months and 25.2 months,with a statistically significant difference in survival (x2 =4.491,P＜0.05).The median survival time in patients with grade 1 and 2 of ALBI score were respectively 29.6 months and 31.0 months,with no statistically significant difference in survival (x2 =0.539,P＞0.05).Conclusion Preoperative ALBI score in predicting PHLF is superior to that of Child-Pugh score,but ALB1 score is not independent factor affecting prognosis of HCC patients.