Spatial distribution characteristics analysis of chronic Keshan disease in China / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the spatial distribution clustering and influencing factors of chronic Keshan disease in China,and to provide evidence for prevention and control of Keshan disease.Methods Using non-probability sampling methods,combined with case search and key surveys,data on national detection rate of chronic Keshan disease,on disease influencing factors in 2013-2014 were collected;a spatial database was established,and ArcGIS 9.0 software was used to perform global Moran'sI,local Moran's I,local Getis-Ord Gi and inverse distance weighted interpolation analysis for the detection rate of national chronic Keshan disease.Spatial regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of chronic Keshan disease.Results Global autocorrelation analysis showed that Moran's I =0.03,Z =2.72,P ＜ 0.01,indicating that there was aggregation in the detection rate of Keshan disease.The results of local Moran's Ii showed that there were local high-detection rate clusters in the wards of Keshan disease,and the high-high aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in the wards of Gansu,Inner Mongolia,and Shanxi;the high-low aggregation areas were mainly located in the wards of Heilongjiang,Jilin,Shandong;the low-high aggregation area were mainly located in the wards of Heilongjiang.Getis-Ord Gi autocorrelation results showed that Keshan disease hotspots were mainly located in the wards of Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Gansu,Shandong,Shanxi and Yunnan;the results of reverse distance weighted interpolation showed that the detection rates of the counties in Gansu and Inner Mongolia were higher than that in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Shanxi,Shandong,Shaanxi and Yunnan,the detection rate of wards in other provinces was at a lower level.Spatial regression analysis showed that the spatial distribution of chronic Keshan disease was negatively related to rural per capita net income and annual average temperature in the ward (Z =-2.808,-2.747,P ＜ 0.05).Conclusions Global chronic Keshan disease exists spatial aggregation,the local gathering area is mainly located in the wards of Gansu,Inner Mongolia.The spatial distribution of chronic Keshan disease may be affected by the level of rural per capita net income and annual average temperature in the ward.