Epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea from 2005 to 2016 and ARIMA model for predicting the incidence trend in Nanshan District of Shenzhen / 中国感染控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of gonorrhea in Nanshan District of Shenzhen, and provide a scientific basis for making control strategies.Methods An epidemiological analysis was performed on gonorrhea cases reported in Nanshan District of Shenzhen from January 2005 to December 2016, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the incidence trend.Results In Nanshan District, a total of 9 590 cases of gonorrhea were reported from2005 to 2016, the reported incidence ranged from59.45/100, 000to 102.74/100, 000, the average annual reported incidence was 78.79/100, 000. 88.06％of cases mainly concentrated in 20-45 years old, 70.23％ of occupations were mainly workers, official staff and houseworks.The monthly incidence of gonorrhea ranged 2.84/100, 000-10.56/100, 000.The ARIMA (1, 1, 1)model was constructed to predict the incidence of gonorrhea in Nanshan District of Shenzhen in 2017, it showed that the fluctuation of predicted incidence and actual incidence of gonorrhea in January-May 2017 was basically the same, the actual incidence was slightly higher than the predicted value, but it was in the 95％confidence interval of the predicted value.Conclusion The epidemic situation of gonorrhea in this area is serious, ARIMA model can more accurately predict the trend of gonorrhea, the prediction results suggest that the incidence of gonorrhea is maintained at a high level, so effective measures based on epidemiological features are urgently needed to control gonorrhea.