The time-series analysis of human rabies in China / 中国人兽共患病学报

ABSTRACT

In order to analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of human rabies in China and explore the incidence forecasting,R3.3.2 software were used to establish the optimal ARIMA model of monthly incidences from 2004 to 2015 in Chi-na.Then the monthly incidences from January to November 2016 were forecasted with the model and the prediction accuracy was evaluated.The annual incidences of human rabies in China were decreasing tendency since 2007,and the monthly incidence reached highly during August to October.The optimal model was ARIMA(2,1,1)(2,0,0)12and the mean absolute error (MASE)was 0.755.The mean relative error was 15.61% when predicting the incidences from January to November 2016.In conclusion,there exists seasonal variation for human rabies in China and ARIMA model can be applied for the short-term fore-casting.