Nomogram predicted the risk for peripherally inserted central catheter related throm-bosis in cancer patients / 中国肿瘤临床

ABSTRACT

Objective: To explore the risk of incidence of catheter-related thrombosis in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy using nomogran. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 286 patients with malignant tumor who needed PICC insertion at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University between December 2014 and December 2015. Potential risk factors were included in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis to finally build a nomogram to predict the risk of PICC-related thrombosis. Results: A total of 286 patients who needed PICC insertion were analyzed, among whom 72 experienced PICC- related thrombosis. Twenty-seven potential thrombosis-related risk factors were included in the LASSO regression analysis. The results indicated that the use of ultrasound guidance during insertion, previous chemotherapy, other catheter-related complications, and plasma Ddimer were the risk factors of PICC related thrombosis. Thus, these four risk factors were applied to the nomogram model. Further,the nomogram prediction model yielded a C-index of 0.688 and the adjusted fitting curve was located in the error range of 10%. Conclusions:Combined with puncture technology, previous chemotherapy history, complications, and D-dimer level constituted the nomogram prediction model for PICC-related thrombosis which had a good accuracy.