Temporal trend and difference decomposition for cerebrovascular disease mortality in Kunshan city, Jiangsu province, 1993-2016 / 中华健康管理学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the mortality trends of cerebrovascular diseases and to quantitatively estimate the influence of population factors on cerebrovascular disease mortality between 1993 to 2016 in Kunshan city, Jiangsu province. Methods Records of cerebrovascular disease deaths were obtained from a register of all causes of death. Crude death rate and age standardized rate (ASR) were calculated, and annual percentage change (APC) based on sex and age were estimated. Difference decomposition was used to estimate the contribution of demographic and non?demographic factors to the change in cerebrovascular disease mortality. Results Between 1993 and 2013, the ASR of cerebrovascular diseases declined significantly for both sexes (APC=-4.9%, 95% CI-5.5% to-4.3%), males alone (APC=-4.8%, 95% CI-5.5% to-4.1%), and females alone (APC=-5.5%, 95% CI-5.7% to-4.3%). However, from the year 2013 to 2016, the ASR of cerebrovascular diseases increased for both sexes together (APC=7.5%, 95% CI 3.8% to 11.2%) and men alone (APC=10.2%, 95% CI 4.3% to 16.1%), but there was no significant change for women (APC=4.3%, 95% CI-1.2% to 9.8%). The overall decrease in mortality due to cerebrovascular disease was mainly due to non?demographic changes; the proportions of its contribution in men, women, and both sexes were 238.78%, 241.09%, and 245.89%, respectively. Conclusion The mortality due to cerebrovascular disease decreased substantially in the past two decades, and this decline was hindered by some demographic factors. It is imperative to explore the causes of this decline to decrease the burden caused by cerebrovascular disease.