Score for the Survival Probability in Metastasis Breast Cancer: A Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment Model / Journal of the Korean Cancer Association, 대한암학회지
Cancer Research and Treatment
;
: 1260-1269, 2018.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-717742
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
Survival of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patient remains unknown and varies greatly from person to person. Thus, we aimed to construct a nomogram to quantify the survival probability of patients with MBC. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
We had included 793 MBC patients and calculated trends of case fatality rate by Kaplan-Meier method and joinpoint regression. Six hundred thirty-four patients with MBC between January 2004 and July 2011 and 159 patients with MBC between August 2011 and July 2013 were assigned to training cohort and internal validation cohort, respectively. We constructed the nomogram based on the results of univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses in the training cohort and validated the nomogram in the validation cohort. Concordance index and calibration curves were used to assess the effectiveness of nomogram.RESULTS:
Case fatality rate of MBC was increasing (annual percentage change [APC], 21.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 46.3; p < 0.05) in the first 18 months and then decreased (APC, -4.5; 95% CI, -8.2 to -0.7; p < 0.05). Metastasis-free interval, age, metastasis location, and hormone receptor status were independent prognostic factors and were included in the nomogram, which had a concordance index of 0.69 in the training cohort and 0.67 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated good consistency between the two cohorts at 1 and 3 years.CONCLUSION:
In conclusion, the fatality risk of MBC was increasing and reached the summit between 13th and 18th month after the detection of MBC. We have developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 1- and 3-year survival probability in MBC.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Breast
/
Breast Neoplasms
/
Calibration
/
Cohort Studies
/
Mortality
/
Risk Assessment
/
Nomograms
/
Methods
/
Neoplasm Metastasis
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Incidence study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Cancer Research and Treatment
Year:
2018
Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS