Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis / 한국역학회지
Epidemiology and Health
;
: e2015003-2015.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-721204
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration.METHODS:
The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria.RESULTS:
The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems.CONCLUSIONS:
The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Periodicity
/
Seasons
/
Infant Mortality
/
Public Health
/
Data Collection
/
Mortality
/
Patient Selection
/
Forecasting
/
Health Facilities
/
Iran
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
/
Infant
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Epidemiology and Health
Year:
2015
Type:
Article
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