Epidemiological characteristics and short-term epidemiological trend prediction of human brucellosis in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, 2003-2017 / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Baotou City,Inner Mongolia in 2003-2017,conduct short-term forecasting of incidence of brucellosis in 2018-2020,and provide evidence for early warning and scientific prevention of brucellosis.Methods The epidemic data of human brucellosis in Baotou City from 2003 to 2017 came from the Infectious Disease Monitoring Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the demographic data came from the statistical yearbook of Baotou City.Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence,time distribution,regional distribution,and population distribution of brucellosis.According to the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in 2003-2017,autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established using R language,and the ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Baotou City in 2018-2020.Results From 2003 to 2017,there were 5 180 cases of human brucellosis in Baotou City,among them,354 cases in 2016 and 357 cases in 2017.The age of onset was concentrated in 35-64 years old (4 046 cases);the high-incidence areas were pastoral areas (2 218 cases) and rural areas (1 975 cases);the occupational distribution was dominated by farmers (3 930 cases) and herders (552 cases);the peak incidence was from April to July every year.The prediction model of human brucellosis onset in Baotou City was ARIMA (2,1,2) × (1,0,1)12,and the average absolute scale error predicted by the model was 0.585.The constructed ARIMA model predicted that the annual incidence of human brucellosis in Baotou City will be 349,331,and 324 cases in 2018-2020.Conclusions There are seasonal,regional and population distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Baotou City.Compared with those of 2016 and 2017,the incidences of human brucellosis in Baotou City are relatively stable in 2018-2020,but the possibility of high incidence is not ruled out.We should pay close attention to the trend of epidemic disease,and adopt comprehensive prevention and treatment measures according to epidemiological characteristics,to effectively control human brucellosis.