Impact of temperature on non-accidental deaths and cause-specific mortality in four districts of Jinan / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the relationship between daily temperature and non-accidental deaths in four districts of Jinan,and to investigate the impact of temperature on cause-specific mortality. Methods Data on daily mortality of the four districts(Shizhong,Huaiyin,Tianqiao,Lixia) as well as data related to meteorology and air pollution index were collected from January 1,2008 to December 31,2012. Distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was then used to assess the effects of temperature on all non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases(RD),digestive diseases,urinary diseases,and also subcategories to hypertension, ischemic heart diseases(IHD),acute myocardial infarction(AMI),cerebro-vascular diseases(CBD) and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Results A W-shaped relationship was noticed between daily average temperature and non-accidental deaths. The effect of low temperature last for more than 30 days,much longer than that of high temperature,in which presented a harvesting effect less than 5 days. As to the cause-specific mortality,short-term heat effects were seen in CVD and RD as well as related subgroups as IHD,CBD and AMI,with RRs at lag 0 as 1.12(95%CI1.07-1.17),1.06 (95%CI1.02-1.31),1.08(95%CI1.003-1.16),1.10(95%CI1.02-1.20) and 1.13 (95%CI1.003-1.26). Relatively higher RRs were seen in urinary diseases and hypertension under extremely high temperature,reaching as high as 2.30(95%CI1.18-4.51)and 1.65(95%CI1.02-2.69). Cold weather presented a delayed effect for 30 days,with cumulative RRs as 1.51(95%CI1.42-1.60),1.90 (95%CI1.64-2.20),2.12(95%CI1.67-2.69),1.48(95%CI1.08-2.03),1.60(95%CI1.46-1.75), 1.40(95%CI1.26-1.55),1.68(95%CI1.45-1.95)for CVD,RD,chronic lower respiratory diseases, hypertension,IHD,CBD and AMI,on sequence. Conclusion A relationship was seen between daily temperature and non-accidental deaths as well as cause-specific mortality. Either high or low temperature seemed to be detrimental. Related measures on disease prevention should be taken during the cold and hot seasons.