Survival time of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in China, 2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the survival time of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in China in 2010.Methods The reporting cards and follow-up cards of HIV/AIDS cases reported as of 31 December 2015 were collected from national AIDS information system.The newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases in 2010 were selected.The information of follow-up intervention,CD4+ T cells (CD4) testing,antiretroviral treatment and mortality of the cases from 2010 to 2015 were analyzed.Life table method was applied to calculate the survival probability.Kaplan-Meier was used to draw survival curve and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related to survival time.Results Of the 40 335 HIV/AIDS cases,11 975(29.7％) died of AIDS related diseases.The median survival time was 63.1 months (95％CI63.0-63.2),and the survival rates in 1 year and 5 years were 81.2％ and 69.9％.Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk factors for death in the HIV/AIDS cases were age (25-34 years old vs.15-24 years oldHR=1.41,95％CI1.29-1.54;35-34 years old vs.15-24 years oldHR=1.90,95％CI1.74-2.07;45-54 years old vs.15-24 years oldHR=2.24,95％CI2.04-2.46;≥55 years old vs.15-24 years oldHR=2.81,95％CI2.57-3.08).The protective factors for death in the HIV/AIDS cases were level of baseline CD4 counts (CD4 ≥ 500 cells/μ1 vs.CD4 ＜ 200 cells/μlHR =0.12,95 ％ CI0.11-0.13),receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART vs.no ARTHR=0.11,95％CI0.10-0.12).Conclusion Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases might be influenced by age,baseline CD4 count and access to antiretroviral therapy.The early diagnosed and early antiretroviral therapy could extend the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases.