Application of Bernoulli Process Model fitting the effect of intervention measures on sexual transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objectives To undersand the outcomes of major intervention measures on sexual transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples.Methods Bernoulli Process Model was applied to model the major influencing factors of HIV transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples.The major influencing factors appeared as consistent condom use,antiretroviral therapy,frequency of sexual behavior.These parameters were from the HIV sero-discordant couples in 30 counties in 4 provinces (Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Yunnan Province,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Henan provinces) from January 1,2011 to December 31,2012.According to the main factors,modeling-intervention strategies and measures on reduction HIV transmission among sero-discordant couples were formed.Results Data from the present proportion of consistent condom use (85％) modeling and the coverage of antiretroviral treatment (60％) showed that,the proportion of cumulative seroconversion among the spouses was 1.76％.Results from the sensitivity analysis on modeling the consistent condom use and the antiretroviral treatment showed that,when the coverage of antiretroviral treatment was as 90％ and the proportion of consistent condom use increased from 50％ to 90％,with 80.7％ of the risk of spouse seroconversion could be reduced.Or,when the proportion of consistent condom use was as 90％ and the coverage of antiretroviral treatment increased from 50％ to 90％,with 64.5％ of the risk of spouse seroconversion could be reduced.Conclusions With measures as consistent condom use plus provision of timely antiretroviral therapy to HIV positive index spouses,the risk of sexual transmission among sero-discordant couples could be greatly reduced.