Capture-mark-recapture analysis on the under-registration rate of mortality surveillance program in Jinan / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the under-registration rate related to mortality surveillance program in Jinan city,from 2013 to 2014,using the capture-mark-recapture method.Methods Under the stratified cluster random sampling method,samples were stratified,according to urban and rural areas.Two districts and three counties were chosen,with three towns/streets in each county/district and eight villages/communities in each township/street,randomly selected.With the participation of departments as civil affairs,public security,maternal/child institutions and community committees as well as individuals as village doctors and community leaders,a list of deaths from January 1,2013 to December 31,2014 was collected and compared to the National Mortality Surveillance System on the rates related to under-registration.Results A total of 2 903 records on deaths were collected from 2013 to 2014,while 3 113 deaths were reported in the surveillance system of the same period.3 772 (95％ CI3 741-3 802) deaths were estimated by the capture-mark-recapture method.The two-year total under-registration rate was 17.46％.The under-registration rates in 2013 and 2014 appeared as 19.29％ and 15.57％ (x2 =8.92,P＜0.01),respectively,with the rates in urban and rural areas as 20.91％ and 11.93％ (x2 =47.35,P＜0.01).The rates on male and female were 17.87％ and 16.98％ (x2 =0.48,P＞0.05).The rates of ＜5 years old group and ≥5 years old group were 21.57％ and 17.45％ (x2 =0.03,P＞0.05) respectively.Conclusions Under-registration in the mortality surveillance was noticed in Jinan.The capture-mark-recapture method seemed useful for evaluating the under-registration rate in the mortality surveillance program.It is suggested that the survey on under-registration rate should be carried out on the regular base.The under-registration rate seemed useful in adjusting the mortality rate.