Spatial-temporal distribution of newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women in China, 2010-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To identify the spatial clustering and its temporal trends among newly detected female HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years or older,in China from 2010 to 2016.Methods Newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women in China during 2010-2016 were collected,to describe their demographic characteristics,changing trends and spatial autocorrelation.This program was conducted at county level,using the ArcGIS 10.3.Results The number of newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women was increasing annually from 16 603 to 26 196 in 2010 and in 2016.As the main route proportion of heterosexual transmission increased from 84.25％ (13 988/16 603) in 2010 to 96.29％ (25 224/26 196) in 2016.Both the number and proportion of HIV/AIDS cases among elderly women ≥50 years of age increased significantly from 17.82％(2 959/16 603) to 38.10％(9 981/26 196) in 2016.Results from spatial analysis demonstrated a county-level clustered distribution of HIV/AIDS cases across the country with a rising global Moran's I value=0.55 over the years (Z=51.46,P＜0.001),which was concentrating on western and southern China,covering 9 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities (Yunnan,Guangxi,Sichuan,Xinjiang,Guizhou,Guangdong,Chongqing,Henan and Hunan).The temporal trends of hot spots differed by age groups,with the trend of epidemic shifting towards western border and southern coastal regions among women aged 15-49 years old,while the elderly women aged ≥50 years old were spreading northward from the southwestern regions.Conclusion Our findings indicated that an increasing trend of clusters appeared on HIV epidemic among newly detected female HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years or older in China,particularly in the western and southern regions.Prevention and intervention strategies should target on women according to their age distribution,particularly in regions with increasing trend of HIV epidemics.