Prevalence of Exudative Age-related Macular Degeneration and Projections of the Cost of Ranibizumab in Korea

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To analyze the incidence and prevalence of exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and to predict the future AMD populations and health expenditures of intravitreal ranibizumab injection. METHODS: From 2010 to 2014, the National Health Insurance claims data were used to estimate the incidence and prevalence change of exudative AMD, according to demographic characteristics (year, sex, residence, and age). Based on the above results and changes in future population distribution, we estimated the AMD population by 2030. Considering the cost of Intravitreal ranibizumab injection from 2010 to 2014, we predicted the future health expenditure for AMD. RESULTS: The incidence and prevalence of exudative AMD increased from 14.04 and 295.11 per 100,000 populations in 2010 to 14.25 and 580.71 in 2014, respectively. The prevalence rate was higher in men and showed a large increase over 70 years of age. The ranibizumab was prescribed 13 times per person in average, and the amount consumed increased as the number of insurance coverage increased from 2013. Future AMD populations are predicted to reach 557,007 in 2030 from 146,871 in 2014. As a result, the cost of intravitreal ranibizumab injection is expected to increase from 83.6 billion won in 2014 to 171.7 billion won in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in medical expenses for AMD is expected due to social aging. Therefore, we need policies to secure medical resources and expand insurance indications.